Today a Manhattan grand jury voted to indict Donald Trump on charges involving payments of “hush money” to porn actress Stormy Daniels, with whom he allegedly had an extramarital affair, and which were made in the runup to the 2016 election.
The charges are under seal and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg must formally charge Trump. Once he does, Trump will very likely surrender to authorities and be fingerprinted, photographed and processed for a felony arrest, although the details of how this will happen are apparently still being worked out.
Trump has repeatedly attacked the investigation, calling it “the greatest witch hunt in history” and claiming that Bragg, who is black, is racist against white people. Certain Republicans have repeatedly claimed Bragg to be a “George Soros-backed” prosecutor, referring to the billionaire philanthropist who Republicans frequently cite as an antisemitic dog whistle.
Trump previously predicted that he would be indicted last Tuesday and urged his supporters to protest in response, leading to tighter security in Manhattan on light of the events of January 6. Just yesterday, when it was reported that the grand jury would not be imminently voting to indict, he posted on Truth Social that he had “gained so much respect for this grand jury . . . that [they] are saying hold on, we’re not a rubber stamp . . . we are not going to vote against a preponderance of evidence or against large numbers of legal scholars all saying there is no case here.”
The grand jury voted to indict him the next day. Trump has now issued a statement calling the indictment “political persecution.”
This is the first time that a former U.S. president has had criminal charges brought against him, and it will undoubtably shake up the 2024 presidential election, for which Trump has been a declared candidate for months. A Quinnipiac University poll taken this week found that 57% of Americans believe a criminal indictment should disqualify Trump from running for president again. This includes Democrats 8% – 9% and Independents 55% – 36%. However, Republicans say 75% – 23% that an indictment should not disqualify him. There is nothing that legally prevents Trump from running for president if he is indicted – or even convicted.
These results indicate that Trump’s indictment will likely do him no favors in the general election, although the Republican primaries are far less certain. According to a number of recent polls, Trump stills holds a lead of anywhere from 14 to 30 points over his closest rival, Florida governor Ron DeSantis. It is unknown how the indictment will affect these numbers, but at least in the short term, it is possible that Republicans will rally around Trump. Indeed, DeSantis has declared that Florida will not assist in any extradition request for Trump. Privately, he is probably popping champagne corks.
Trump is facing a number of additional criminal investigations that may also yield indictments, including an investigation by the Fulton County District Attorney into Trump’s meddling with the 2020 vote count in Georgia, as well as two federal investigations into Trump’s removal and handling of classified documents following his presidency, and his role in inciting the insurrection on January 6, 2021.
America faces the prospect that the Republican nominee for president will have been indicted – and possibly convicted – of multiple, unrelated felonies under federal and state laws. We are truly in uncharted territory already, and even more so if these circumstances come to pass.
